I watch a fair number of movies. Not counting DVD’s, I’ve easily seen over 50 films at theaters in 2004. I’ve seen all the films nominated for the Best Picture and most of the other performances. Here are my thoughts:
Best Picture
Who should win: The Aviator
I thought this was easily the best picture I saw in 2004. Its a big bio epic type of film that usually wins Best Picture. I’m a sucker for these type of films, so my support isn’t a big suprise. Million Dollar Baby has gotten a lot of buzz lately and it could win.
Best Director
Who should win: Martin Scorsese
There is a very high correlation between the winner of best picture and best director. Martin Scorsese has never won an Oscar and this might be sort of a lifetime achievement award. (Like when Paul Newman won for The Color of Money) The only other real contender is Clint Eastwood who has already won the award, and is nominated for best actor. Those things shouldn’t really matter, but they do.
Best Actor
Who should win: Jamie Foxx
If anyone had uttered the words “Academy Award Winner Jamie Foxx” a few years ago, they would have been committed. In fact, of all the people on the cast of In Living Color, if you had said one would win an Oscar, he probably would have been at the bottom of the list. Nonetheless, he’s gonna win. Its a slam dunk. His performance was sort of like George C. Scott’s in Patton. He became Ray Charles.
Best Actress
Who should win: Hillary Swank
Another slam dunk. She isn’t thought of in the same league as Nicole Kiddman or Julia Roberts, but she is going to join an elite group who have won more than one oscar for acting. The amazing thing is, if you look at her movies since she won for Boy’s Don’t Cry, its been a bunch of crap. (She was in The Core for christsakes)
Best Supporting Actor
Who should win: Morgan Freeman
Not only did he legitimately have the best performance of the bunch who were nominated, this is also sort of a lifetime achievement award for him. He won best supporting actor in the SAG awards, and I’ll be amazed if he doesn’t win here.
Best Supporting Actress
Who should win: Cate Blanchett
Assuming she wins (and I think she will) she will have won an Oscar for playing the woman who has won more acting Oscars than anyone else (Katherine Hepburn…she won 4) All four of the acting picks I’ve made won SAG awards and I think all four should be pretty easy wins.
If you are in an Oscar pool, check out the Hollywood Stock Exchange. Its a market type system where you can buy and sell shares of actors and movies. They have an uncanny ability to pick the winners.
